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Automated Demand Response
www.AutomatedDemandResponse.com

What is Automated Demand Response?

Automated Demand Response is a Demand Side Management solution that is specifically designed for a customer's specific location, energy/power requirements, and also for the specific electric rates for that customer's location. Automated Demand Response does not involve human intervention, but is initiated at a facility through receipt of an external communications signal. Automated Demand Response is a rather new area of DSM technologies and may provide a lucrative revenue stream for customers who can curtail electric load in response to demand incentives, ICAP payments, and/or commodity prices. 

Automated demand response technology seeks to automatically, through software and hardware applications, respond to variations and fluctuations in the electric grid and in the prices of electricity and power markets.

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You Can't Have a Unified Smart Grid Without: 

Advanced Metering System  *  Advanced Meters  *  Automated Demand Response  *  Automatic Meter Reading 

Battery Energy Storage  *  Building Automation Systems  *  Carbon Free Energy  *  Clean Power Generation  *  Cogeneration 

Compressed Air Energy Storage  *  Decentralized Energy  *  Demand Side Management  *  Distributed Energy Resources 

Distributed Generation  *  Distributed PV  *  EcoGeneration  *  High Voltage Direct Current  *  Load Leveling 

Locational Marginal Pricing  *  Meter Data Management  *  Micro-Grid  *  Net Zero Energy  *  Net Zero Energy Buildings 

Nodal Pricing *  Pollution Free Power  *  Plug In Electric Vehicles  *  Renewable Energy Parks   

Rooftop PV  *  Solar Cogeneration  *  Solar Power Parks  *  Virtual Power Plants  *  Waste Heat Recovery  

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Demand Side Management
www.DemandSideManagement.com

Advertising inquiries may be directed to
The Renewable Energy Institute

info@DemandSideManagement.com

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Battery Energy Storage
www.BatteryEnergyStorage.com

What is Battery Energy Storage?

Battery Energy Storage, and Battery Energy Storage systems, use stored electrical power in batteries, and feed this energy to the electric grid (building, or facility) at times when it makes economic sense.  For a "Net Zero Energy" building or facility, a Solar Cogeneration, or Solar Trigeneration energy system is used that stores excess solar power in the Battery Energy Storage system during the daytime, for use when the sun goes down, and during inclement weather.

Battery Energy Storage is an ideal solution for utility-scale wind farms, particularly in Texas, when most of the renewable energy is generated at night when the power isn't needed.  

Battery Energy Storage is also an ideal demand side management or load leveling solution.

Flywheel Energy Storage Project Overview

This project demonstrates a flywheel energy storage system designed to respond to a regional transmission operator signal to quickly add or subtract power from the grid in a frequency regulation support mode. Using this concept, the flywheel recycles energy (store energy when generation exceeds loads; discharge energy when load exceeds generation) instead of trying to constantly adjust generator output.

The Purpose of the Flywheel Energy Storage Project

This project is being sponsored to determine the relative benefits of having faster responding generation resources. Additionally, understanding the response time of a flywheel storage system as compared to traditional generator response time will provide a better determination of the required sizing for flywheel and other fast response systems.

When aggregated to reach appropriate output/input levels there are many benefits that a flywheel energy storage can offer to the electric grid. The primary benefits are:

• Increased Available energy: Because present day generators need to be operated below their maximum capability to provide regulation, they are not available to provide their maximum power. Typically generators need to be below their maximum capacity by 2 times the amount of regulation in order to provide headroom for safe operation. If all regulation were accomplished by flywheel energy storage system, then there would be an additional 2-4 % generation capacity without adding new generators.
  

• Support Distributed Generation and Decentralized Energy with Local Voltage Support: Several Projects have already shown the benefits of using flywheels for local voltage support. This includes a project on the NY City transit system, where ten 1.6 KWh flywheels provide support between train stations. As flywheel energy storage use increases, as will be demonstrated by this project, the feasibility of larger scale application of flywheel energy storage system for local voltage support will be more practical.

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Diagram from the Dept of Energy

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How Flywheel Energy Storage is Being Applied

The flywheel energy storage system consists of an array of flywheel energy storage modules and power conversion electronics packaged in a standard 12’ x 40’ shipping container. This mobile container would interface with the grid’s three-phase 480-volt cables via a step up transformer. This matrix is capable of storing and recycling 250 kWh’s of energy. The rated discharge rate of a matrix is 1 MW therefore each container will provide rated power for 15 minutes or lower power for an extended period.

Monitoring and data acquisition has been specified such that system availability and power/energy parameters will be accessible via the website. Any time the system is operated, the kilowatts supplied or absorbed by the storage unit and the total system efficiency will be viewable via graphical display by day, week, month, etc.

While performing the Frequency Regulation, the flywheel energy storage system will receive two input signals from the System Operator.

1. Regulation Signal (RS): This will be the amount of regulation to be provided over the next time step. This value will be between (-)100KW and (+) 100KW. Minus refers to absorbing 100kW of power from the Grid. Plus refers to injecting 100 kW of power to the grid. The regulation signal refers to the amount of power being absorbed or injected relative to a base set point as described by signal 2. The amount of power being injected or absorbed will be as measured downstream of the flywheel energy storage system and upstream of the step up transformer. This regulation signal will be updated every 4 seconds.
   

2. Set Point (SP): This will be the nominal level of power being removed from the grid during the time on regulation. It will be a percentage of the full regulation signal and will be a variable during the demonstration phase of testing. This setting will remain constant over an agreed to time period – usually one to 24 hours. In addition to the set point and regulation signal the master controller will have input from the flywheel controller to know how much energy is in each flywheel. The system controller will then send a signal to the flywheel controllers, and load bank to control the power flow within and to and from the flywheel energy storage system based on these inputs.

The system will be installed and demonstrated at a location in San Ramon, California. It will be run for a period of six months to demonstrate its ability to interface with the ISO signals and grid. Data will be independently collected through funding provided by the U.S. DOE and used to estimate the system performance over time. 

The flywheel energy storage system will follow the regulation signal within a fraction of a percent. Unlike generation based frequency regulation, no fuel is consumed, and no emissions are generated. Analysis of presently used frequency regulation signals indicates that an energy storage module, which can store or deliver 1 MW for 15 minutes, would provide regulation services superior to services currently provided by generators. After development testing is completed the flywheel energy storage system and will be commissioned and put on automatic control.

Some of the following information from the Department of Energy with permission and our thanks:  www.DOE.gov

What is Demand Side Management?

Demand Side Management, or "DSM" is the process of managing the consumption of energy, generally to optimize available and planned generation resources.

Not all businesses are candidates for cogeneration or trigeneration, however, your company may be a great candidate for other energy-saving solutions. One of these is Demand Side Management, or "DSM". We also provide cost-effective DSM solutions.

According to the Department of Energy, Demand Side Management refers to "actions taken on the customer's side of the meter to change the amount or timing of energy consumption. Utility DSM programs offer a variety of measures that can reduce energy consumption and consumer energy expenses. Electricity DSM strategies have the goal of maximizing end-use efficiency to avoid or postpone the construction of new generating plants."

What is Demand Response and How is it Different from "Demand Side Management"?

"Demand Response" is a subset of Demand Side Management (DSM) or a potential Demand Side Management program solution which helps make the electric grid much more efficient and balanced by assisting the electric grid's commercial and industrial customers reduce their electric demand, and/or shifts the time period when they use their electricity, and/or prioritizes the way they use electricity, and in so doing, reduces their overall energy costs. A Demand Side Management Program will include measures that promotes the following:

• Reduced customer peak and overall energy demand

• Improves the electric grid's reliability

• Balances the electric grid through increased efficiency

• Energy efficiency

• Manages electricity costs

• Conservation through both behavioral and operational changes

• Load management

• Fuel switching

• Distributed energy

• And provide systems that encourage load shifting or load shedding during times when the electric grid is near its capacity or electric power prices are high

Demand Response has also been defined as a "Demand Side Management" subset that is a set of time dependent activities that reduces or shifts electricity use of selected customers.

Electric power generation and distribution systems are strongly affected by supply-side policies (how, when, and where to generate electricity, how to couple generation into the grid, how to transmit and distribute generated electricity) and demand-side policies (pricing schemes, conservation efforts, customer premises automation, and, in extreme circumstances, rolling blackouts). Demand-side programs focus on reducing the peak-to-average demand profiles through automation in the customer premises.

Demand Response or Demand Side Management can be achieved through demand reduction, by shifting load to a less expensive time period, or by substituting another resource for delivered electricity (such as natural gas or onsite power generation, also known as "distributed generation."

Demand Response (DR) is a set of activities to reduce or shift electricity use to improve electric grid reliability, manage electricity costs, and ensure that customers receive signals that encourage load reduction during times when the electric grid is near its capacity. The two main drivers for widespread demand responsiveness are the prevention of future electricity crises and the reduction of electricity prices. Additional goals for price responsiveness include equity through cost of service pricing, and customer control of electricity usage and bills. The technology developed and evaluated in this report could be used to support numerous forms of DR programs and tariffs.

A recent pilot test to enable an Automatic Demand Response system in California has revealed several lessons that are important to consider for a wider application of a regional or statewide Demand Response Program.

The six facilities involved in the site testing were from diverse areas of our economy. The test subjects included a major retail food marketer and one of their retail grocery stores, financial services buildings for a major bank, a postal services facility, a federal government office building, a state university site, and ancillary buildings to a pharmaceutical research company. Although these organizations are all serving diverse purposes and customers, they share some underlying common characteristics that make their simultaneous study worthwhile from a market transformation perspective. These are large organizations. Energy efficiency is neither their core business nor are the decision-makers who will enable this technology powerful players in their organizations. The management of buildings is perceived to be a small issue for top management and unless something goes wrong, little attention is paid to the building manager's problems. All of these organizations contract out a major part of their technical building operating systems. Control systems and energy management systems are proprietary. Their systems do not easily interact with one another. Management is, with the exception of one site, not electronically or computer literate enough to understand the full dimensions of the technology they have purchased. Despite the research teams development of a simple, straightforward method of informing them about the features of the demand response program, they had significant difficulty enabling their systems to meet the needs of the research. The research team had to step in and work directly with their vendors and contractors at all but one location. All of the participants have volunteered to participate in the study for altruistic reasons, that is, to help find solutions to California's energy problems. They have provided support in workmen, access to sites and vendors, and money to participate. Their efforts have revealed organizational and technical system barriers to the implementation of a wide scale program.

What are Demand Response Programs?

Demand Response Programs are programs usually designed and offered by electric utilities that offers those clients that sign-up for specific DR programs with financial incentives and other benefits that help those participating customers to curtail energy use. These actions by the electric utilities and participating clients provide a reliable, predictable amount of power (megawatts) that the ISO's and RTO's can count on during an emergency when energy supplies are low, and there is an inadequate amount of available power generation. The electric utilities typically require that those customers that enroll in their DR program(s) install certain software and hardware, that communicates with these client's online energy management systems, and can control these client's electric power requirements as needed.

What is "Peak Shaving?"

Peak shaving is our demand side management solutions that reduces the use peak demand and amount of electricity by commercial and utility customers. Peak-shaving may significantly reduce the peak demand as well as the energy expenses for clients that have implemented a peak-shaving solution.

What is Load Response?

Load Response and Load Response programs operate in response to requests for peak load reductions with little, if any, discretion in compliance on the part of the customer. The buyer or operator, such as a traditional utility, load serving entity, curtailment service provider, or grid operator, directs load response programs.

What is Price Response?

Price Response and Price Response programs operate based on voluntary actions of customers in response to economic signals. The differences between Price Response and Load Response programs are a matter of degree. The most pronounced difference is price response programs rely on wholesale clearing prices as a primary signal or method to reimburse customers for their participation, and are much more likely to be voluntary. Some Load Response programs have the same characteristics, but are skewed toward a command-and-control methodology.

More About Price Response and Load Response Programs

Load Response is a type of Demand Side Management solution that commercial and industrial customers may choose to employ in response to wholesale electricity prices or other market incentives which can serve several important system-wide functions.

For example, retail customers can ease tight capacity situations and mitigate reliability concerns by reducing their electric power usage or consumption. By reducing consumption in response to price signals or other financial incentives, retail customers also can reduce peak wholesale electricity prices, mitigate price volatility, and reduce opportunities for market manipulation.

It is not necessary for all customers to participate in these emergency or economic Load Response programs; even the response of a small percentage of customers can produce significant benefits for the electric grid and its customers.

In order to participate in Load Response programs, customers need load response “tools” or solutions that can assist them in reducing their electric power usage at the appropriate times.

The two main categories of Load Response tools are communications devices and mechanisms for modifying a customer’s usage of electricity supplied by the grid during peak hours and conditions. Customers have two basic mechanisms for reducing their demand on the local electricity grid. They can simply reduce their electricity at key times through Load Response management, energy efficiency or energy conservation measures and improvements, or the customer can shift their source of electricity from the grid to on-site cogeneration or trigeneration power and energy systems thereby reducing their use of grid electricity but not their overall use of electricity.

Emergency Load Response can be implemented with readily available technology. For example, Load Response software can be installed in a building (e.g., an industrial facility, an office building, or commercial establishment, or even a home) that would connect to the outside world (signals sent by the Independent System Operator) with building control systems (e.g., thermostats, light dimmers). The building owner or operator could choose to respond to the signal or not. With currently available software, building operators could be notified through e-mail, cellular phone, and alpha-numeric paging of an expected reliability threat and could respond as simply as pressing a “yes” or “no” button included with the system. An affirmative answer would trigger predetermined changes to building systems (e.g., the lights could dim twenty percent, the AC thermostat could rise two degrees) for a set time.

Emergency Load Response to serve a reliability function is not new technology. For years, electric utilities and system operators have offered special rates to customers who were willing to curtail their load upon request from the utility or system operator to avert short-term reliability problems. On hot days when demand threatens to overwhelm the available capacity on the system, customers willing and able to lower the amount of electricity they draw from the grid offer a resource that can be tapped to delay or avoid the need for more drastic measures, including rolling brown-outs or rolling black-outs. Customers participating in load response programs don’t just avoid costs associated with consuming at high prices at peak periods; they can receive payments from “selling” the power they don’t use at market prices.

Simply put, the electricity that the customer decides not to use at peak times can be sold back into the energy market at peak prices.

Background on Demand Side Management

Demand Side Management (DSM) programs consist of the planning, implementing, and monitoring activities of electric utilities that are designed to encourage consumers to modify their level and pattern of electricity usage.

In the past, the primary objective of most Demand Side Management programs was to provide cost-effective energy and capacity resources to help defer the need for new sources of power, including generating facilities, power purchases, and transmission and distribution capacity additions. However, due to changes occurring within the industry, electric utilities are also using DSM to enhance customer service.

Demand Side Management refers only to energy and load-shape modifying activities undertaken in response to utility-administered programs. It does not refer to energy and load-shape changes arising from the normal operation of the marketplace or from government-mandated energy-efficiency standards.

Historical Information of Demand Side Management (1999)

In 1999, 848 electric utilities report having Demand Side Management (DSM) programs. Of these, 459 are classified as large, and 389 are classified as small utilities. This is a decrease of 124 utilities from 1998.(1) DSM costs were almost unchanged at 1.4 billion dollars in both 1998 and 1999.

Energy Savings for the 459 large electric utilities increased to 50.6 billion kilowatt hours, 1.4 billion kilowatt hours more than in 1998. These energy savings represent 1.5 percent of annual electric sales of 3,312 billion kilowatthours(2) to ultimate consumers in 1999.

Actual peak load reductions for large utilities decreased in 1999 to 26,455 megawatts. Potential peak load reductions of 43,570 megawatts were an increase of 2,140 over 1998.

In 1999, incremental energy savings for large utilities were 3.1 billion kilowatt hours, incremental actual peak load reductions were 2,263 megawatts.

Technologies Used in Demand Side Management:

These energy conservation technologies are implemented to reduce total energy use. Specific technologies include energy-efficient lighting, appliances, and building equipment, all of which can be found on the EREN Buildings Energy Efficiency page. For energy efficiency at industrial sites, see the EREN Industrial Energy Efficiency page.

Load Leveling:

These technologies are used to smooth out the peaks and dips in energy demand — by reducing consumption at peak times ("peak shaving"), increasing it during off-peak times ("valley filling"), or shifting the load from peak to off-peak periods — to maximize use of efficient baseload generation and reduce the need for spinning reserves.

Load control:

Energy management control systems (EMCSs) can be used to switch electrical equipment on or off for load leveling purposes. Some EMCSs enable direct off-site control (by the utility) of user equipment. Typically applied to heating, cooling, ventilation, and lighting loads, EMCSs can also be used to invoke on-site generators, thereby reducing peak demand for grid electricity. Energy storage devices located on the customer's side of the meter can be used to shift the timing of energy consumption.

Issues Involving the Implementation Demand Side Management Solutions Include: Public Benefits Programs, Rate Schedules, Time-of-Use Rates, Power Factor Charges, and Real-Time-Pricing

Public Benefits Programs

Prior to electricity industry restructuring, utilities were responsible for a variety of programs (including DSM) that meet social objectives. Under restructuring, funding for these programs is typically through a small surcharge ("wires charge" or "system benefits charge") on utility bills.

Rate Schedules

Utilities can structure their rates to encourage customers to modify their pattern of energy use.

Time-of-Use Rates

Time-of-use rates involve charging higher prices for peak electricity as a way to shift demand to off-peak periods. Interruptible rates offer discounts in exchange for a user commitment to reduce demand when requested by the utility.

Power Factor Charges

Power factor charges can be implemented to discourage commercial and industrial utility customers from partially loading their electrical equipment, as this requires the utility to generate extra current to cover the resulting system losses.

Real-Time Pricing

Real-time pricing is where the electricity price varies continuously (or hour by hour) based on the utility's load and the different types of power plants that have to be operated to satisfy that demand.

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How we make and distribute electricity is changing! 

The electric power generation, transmission and distribution system (the electric "grid") is changing and evolving from the electric grid of the 19th and 20th centuries, which was inefficient, highly-polluting, very expensive and “dumb.”  

The "old" way of generating and distributing energy resembles this slide:

The carbon clock tracks total carbon dioxide emissions in metric tons since 1750.

Since 1750, humans have emitted over 5 trillion pounds of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Roughly half of this has ended up in the oceans where it is beginning to damage the coral reefs. The other half is still in the atmosphere and causing global warming. Each pound of CO2 takes up as much space as a 500 pound person.

The formula (which should be good for a year or two) is:
C(t) = 2.58 ×1012 + 1240×t, where t is seconds since the start of 2007.

C is tonnes (metric tons) of carbon dioxide emissions.
2205 x C gives pounds of carbon dioxide emissions.

That comes to over 43 billion tons/year or over 86 trillion pounds/year.

Carbon dioxide (2) = 1 carbon atom with 2 oxygen atoms.
Carbon has relative weight 12 and Oxygen 16.
So it takes only 12 pounds of carbon to make 12+16+16 = 44 pounds of CO2. 

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions  
Linked to the Loss of Polar Bears

Photo courtesy of Alaska Image Library. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
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About the Renewable Energy Institute, Climate Science,
Tax-payer Subsidies for Fossil Fuel & Nuclear Industries,
Peak Oil & America's Clear and Present Danger

Monty Goodell, MBA
Founder and Chairman
Renewable Energy Institute

The Renewable Energy Institute (REI) does not take a stand in the debate on global warming, and if there is global warming, is it "anthropogenic" or is it caused by the sun, or the sun's normal cycles.  Or, if there is " climate change," is it "global cooling" caused by the water vapor in the atmosphere? The stand we take is that we need to invest in renewable energy technologies, producing clean, renewable energy that doesn't pollute the planet, and end America's addiction to crude oil from foreign countries where we now spend OVER $1 Billion/day, to buy the oil we need, and some of those suppliers (muslims in foreign countries) take our dollars and make bombs and bullets and send our boys back in body bags. We need to stop this, and put American's back to work, generating "green power and energy" right here at home.

At the Renewable Energy Institute, we are waiting for the "true" scientists who doing the real research, to provide us with the science and answers critically needed to formulate correct policy - and not the phony " scientists" who are following politically-motivated and profit-driven agendas of the United Nations and government leaders. These phony scientists are not interested in conducting real scientific research.  Their very livelihoods are dependent on the government grants to fund their phony research that have pre-determined conclusions before and "research" is conducted.  

Political-interference by governments, governmental agencies, and bureaucrats that hand out billions of tax-payers dollars to phony scientists to conduct "junk science" and research,  expect the conclusions that supports anthropogenic global warming, or climate change. 

When scientists conclude in their research that they find no evidence of anthropogenic climate change or global warming, they are summarily dismissed, and black-balled from their communities and colleagues, and never again receive funding or grants.  Grants and funding by government bureaucrats with politically-driven agendas to "scientists" expecting their pre-determined results and conclusions supporting anthropogenic global warming must stop.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2007

• the solar industry received $198 million in subsidies.

• the oil and natural gas industry collected $2.1 Billion in tax-payer subsidies.

• the coal industry coal received $3.2 Billion in tax-payer subsidies.

And since 1960:

• the nuclear industry has received nearly $70 billion in tax-payer incentives and tax-payer subsidies. 

Taxpayers have bankrolled the oil and gas industry, and the coal industry for 100 years now, and the nuclear industry for 50 years, to keep these dirty fuels and energy "cheap." Take away the tax-payer incentives and tax dollars, and we believe the real cost of gasoline, would be similar to the gasoline cost in Europe - $7.00 - $8.00/gallon!

In the meantime, our U.S. Military is spending billions of tax-payer dollars each year protecting the Straits of Hormuz where much of the world's crude oil is produced and shipped through the straits' international shipping lanes.  Each day, hundreds of "very large crude carriers" pass through the Straits of Hormuz carrying oil from OPEC and the Middle-East to the U.S. and many other countries. 

Isn't it time we take some of the tax-payer dollars supporting the nuclear, coal and oil and gas industries, and start incentivizing clean, renewable energy technologies that don't pollute or harm the environment in any way?  Isn't it time that America ends its reliance on non-sustainable energy sources and stop over $1 billion every day, to oil suppliers from foreign countries, and start putting this money in "solar on every rooftop?!?

Mercury Emissions from Coal Fired Power Plants Far More Harmful to the Planet and People than Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Regarding the harm being caused to our planet from energy use, far more harm is being done to the planet, as well as to people and plants and animals, particularly fish, from the mercury emissions from coal fired power plants than from the coal fired power plants' greenhouse gas emissions.  We surmise that if any polar bears have died as a result of an environmental problem, it was more likely from the high levels of mercury in their food chain, than from greenhouse gas emissions. 

The Renewable Energy Institute is supporting and advancing renewable energy technologies, as well as reducing and eliminating greenhouse gas emissions and the fossil-fuel problems related to America's oil addiction and ending our dependence on foreign oil.  The renewable energy technologies we support are already deemed to be economic, viable and practical. Solutions such as Solar Trigeneration energy systems (see www.SolarTrigeneration.com for more information) for any kind of facility or building - office buildings, shopping centers, data centers, university campuses, etc. 

Since 2003, a Solar Trigeneration energy system has been providing 100% of the power and energy for a 5,300 sq. ft. office building near downtown Los Angeles, and doing so without any connection to the electric grid, whether its 12 noon or 12 midnite!  

The Renewable Energy Institute is also involved in research and advocacy of "Net Zero Energy" (see: www.NetZeroEnergy.com for more information) and "Net Zero Energy Buildings" (see:  www.NetZeroEnergyBuildings.com for more information).  Net Zero Energy Buildings generate as much (or more) energy than they use, and export their excess power to the grid, which we believe needs to be updated into a "Transmission Superhighway."

Climate Change, Global Warming or Global Cooling?

The past 10 years indicates the opposite of "global warming" has occurred - that the "Earths Fever" has and that global cooling has taken place. 

Weather, on a daily basis, or even an annual basis, is not climate, and climate is not weather. 

"Climate change" is always taking place, from one day to the next, and one week to the next, as well as one year to the next. The planet's climate is an ever-evolving, changing and dynamic process.  

Again, researchers and scientists need to refrain from being political, and stay out of politics, and politicians need to stay out of the way of the scientists and researchers, and let them do their work.  Politicians, government leaders and bureaucrats scientists need true and accurate data and climate research from scientists that do not have a political agenda.

In the meantime, as there may still be 30 years of research before there are conclusive answers concerning anthropogenic climate change, can we "risk" 30 years of our children and grand children's future, should there is a link between climate change and greenhouse gas emissions?  Should we not err on the side of caution?

Hubbert's Peak Oil Predictions Now Proving True?

Marion King Hubbert was a geologist and scientist who worked at Shell Oil company's research lab in Houston, Texas.  Hubbert made several important contributions to geology, geophysics and petroleum geology.  Hubbert is most recognized for the "Hubbert Curve" and " Hubbert Peak Theory" which is now referred to as " Peak Oil. 

Hubbert's life work determined that the world has a finite amount of petroleum that can be produced.  (Similarly, there is a finite amount of coal.) Many scientists and engineers believe we have reached Hubbert's "peak oil" limit.  Hubbert's espouses that when 50% of domestic crude oil production has been reached, that there will be such significant upward demand on prices of the limited supplies of oil production, that the U.S. economy will experience severe economic, social, and political turmoil.

Hubbert's Peak Oil predictions have proven to be true and this is validated as the U.S. in the early 1970's produced about 60% of its' oil demand and imported 40%.  That equation has flipped since then, because our domestic oil production has been on the decline since 1970, so now, due to our declining domestic oil production, we have to import 60% of our oil supplies, to meet our country's oil/energy demands.

The Next Oil Shock Could be the "mother" of All Oil Shocks

How severe our economic calamity and next "oil shock" will depend upon a number of factors, including when this occurs, as well as the following:

1.  the dependence of the individual country upon its own crude oil production to meet its energy needs and to subsidize consumer imports; 

2.  the rate of relative decline in crude oil production; 

3.  the degree of difficulty encountered in replacing missing energy inputs; 

4.  the degree to which our country had prepared in advance for this inevitable geological and economic calamity.

Examples of past "oil shocks" and the economic and political calamities that followed:

United States: Our peak crude oil production of domestic oil occurred in 1970; the first "oil shock" and oil crisis followed in 1973 with the Arab/OPEC Oil Embargo.

Iran: Their peak crude oil production occurred in 1974; They had their islamic revolution 1979 that overturned government and replaced it with radical islam.

Soviet Union: Their peak crude oil production was in 1989; what happened next? 
Their country disintegrated and the collapse of the Soviet Union followed in 1991. 

Indonesia: Their peak crude oil production was in 1991; their financial and government crisis followed in 1997.

Iraq: Iraq's crude oil production was in 1989; they then invaded Kuwait (for their oil) in 1991.

Using Mr. Hubbert's predictions, that beginning around 2000  we would see peak (global) oil production, then, if the country's not weaning themselves off of their oil addiction, and had not begun making the switch to renewable energy, that the negative economic and political calamities would soon follow, including ever-increasing prices of energy that is from fossil fuels. 

Now is the time to begin weaning ourselves off of fossil fuels and making the transition to and increasing the use of renewable energy. If you don't believe in climate change, or global warming, GREAT! Join us in the switch to renewable energy and a fossil-free economy!

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America's Clear and Present Danger

America Has INCREASED its' Dependence on Foreign 
Sources of Energy by 50% Since 1973.

America is even more "addicted" to foreign oil today, than we were in 1973 - 1974 when OPEC, Saudi Arabia and other suppliers from the Middle-East  stopped selling us their fossil fuels, and created a significant blow to our economy.

According to Monty Goodell, Founder and Chairman of the Renewable Energy Institute, "our increased dependence and reliance on foreign energy supplies represents a Clear and Present Danger to our national security, our economy, and the lives and livelihood of every American. Energy - including the energy we use from imported fossil fuels, is the very "lifeblood" of the American economy as it is for every industrialized country.  An economy dies without it's lifeblood of energy. This Clear and Present Danger we face is far more serious than the problems related to greenhouse gas emissions.  And while greenhouse gas emissions are very serious issue, in the long-term, pales in comparison to America's vital national security interests and America's economic stability in the short term.  For this reason alone, America needs to transition away from its addiction to foreign energy supplies. And America's abundant renewable energy resources such as the energy we receive from the sun, and renewable energy technologies such as concentrated solar power (CSP) plants - can supply 100% of America's power requirements with a concentrating solar power plant measuring 75 miles by 75 miles, located in the Southwest U.S.  By generating America's power from concentrating solar power plants, America resolves its' short-term Clear and Present Danger as it relates to importing its energy from foreign countries, and the long-term problems relating to greenhouse gas emissions."

Continuing, Mr. Goodell states that "too many Americans have forgotten what happened to us in 1973, when the Arabs and OPEC brought the United States economy to a screeching halt during the OPEC Oil Embargo.  This happened because they (mainly the country of Saudi Arabia) disagreed with our foreign policy and is the reason why they "turned off the tap" of our need for their oil supplies. When Saudi Arabia and OPEC stopped the vital flow of oil to our country in 1973, they caused an "oil shock" that severely and negatively impacted our economy. 

Mr. Goodell's question for us to ponder is, "do these countries who sell us 60% of our daily energy requirements, like us and our foreign policy, or might they leverage our addiction to their fossil fuels, and turn off the tap to make us adjust or revise our foreign policy??  Like any addict, America's foreign policy may be held hostage to its addiction, and in this case, our addiction to foreign oil, may over-ride our national interests."

Have American's forgotten the gas shortages and long lines at 
their gas stations to get gas during the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973? 

"Apparently so."  Mr. Goodell states that "in 1973, America was 'addicted' and 'over the barrel' of foreign oil to the amount of 40%.  Forty percent of our energy 'needs' in 1973 came from countries - many of which didn't like us then, and I'm afraid, many of them still don't.  The difference between 1973 and today - is that today we receive 50% MORE foreign oil now than we did in 1973.  And now we know about the problems relating to greenhouse gas emissions that we didn't know then.  America needs to change course, and change course now, in terms of its' energy supplies and how we keep America's economy strong, without the threat of being held hostage to a middle-east tyrant or regime, that could once again, turn on us, and turn off our supply of foreign oil." 

Remember ????

"Sadly," Monty Goodell continues, "most Americans have forgotten the long lines of people waiting in their cars - lined up and waiting for gasoline at their nearby gas station, with lines that were many blocks long.  And, after waiting 4-5 hours, many even waiting overnight in many places, to finally take their turn to fill up their car with gasoline, only to find that the gas station had run out of gas." 

"Let me Repeat.... That was 1973 when we imported 40% of our daily energy requirements in the form of crude oil from overseas, and from foreign countries - and many of these from countries that don't like us.

Today, over 35 years later, America has yet to learn the lesson.  We cannot continue our reliance on energy from foreign countries that supply us with 60% of the crude oil that our refineries use as a feedstock for producing gasoline and diesel fuel for our cars and trucks comes from overseas. 

America is "over the barrel" and it's not our barrel, but the barrels of oil that we are addicted by and owned by other countries.  Why have we not learned the lessons we needed to learn in 1973 when we were cut-off from the vital energy supplies we need? 

Countries like China, are growing rapidly, and have an insatiable need for crude oil. China, with their booming economy, is increasingly growing in its clout and control over international supplies of crude oil - whether they do this through their ability to buy as much oil as they need on a daily basis, or whether they simply but American drilling rigs, technology, and explore and produce oil and gas from their own fields. China, is buying large amounts of oil for their country, and causing upward pricing on declining supplies. What happens if Russia, with all of their oil and natural gas, along with China and Venezuela, with or without the help of OPEC, decided to NOT sell oil to us????

To be sure, greenhouse gas emissions are a problem, and to some, greenhouse gas emissions are also a Clear and Present Danger, but not to the extent that it presents an imminent Clear and Present Danger. 

America's reliance for 60% of our energy "needs" coming from foreign suppliers is un-acceptable.

The "driver" to get America to begin reducing and eliminating fossil fuel use should be our nation's national security and the welfare and safety of its citizens. And this can all begin with developing and investing in our own renewable energy resources and renewable energy technologies, let's start by putting solar on every rooftop that has a clear and unobstructed view of the Southern sky. See www.RooftopPV.com  or  www.DistributedPV.com  for more information.  Let's create incentives begin with adopting a national "Feed In Tariff" as Germany did in 1990. 

America, we simply do NOT have the luxury of time on our hands.  We need to end our dependence and reliance on foreign fossil fuels, especially from countries that don't like us! We need to rapidly begin expanding renewable energy resources and renewable energy technologies from our vast and abundant renewable energy resources, such as; solar, solar energy systems, solar cogeneration, solar trigeneration, "solar on every roof," waste to energy, waste to fuel, biomass gasification, B100 Biodiesel, Biomethane, Synthesis Gas, geothermal, E100 Ethanol (from sugar cane and NOT from corn), and wind, where it makes economic sense."   

For more information, call/email 
the Renewable Energy Institute

American Energy Plan
www.AmericanEnergyPlan.com

Wind Power Generation
www.WindPowerGeneration.com

Zero Emission Energy
www.ZeroEmissionEnergy.com

Zero Emission Power
www.ZeroEmissionPower.com

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